Obesity and Fast Food Essay Example for Free

Obesity and Fast Food Essay January 2009 Abstract. We investigate the health consequences of changes in the supply of fast food using the exact geographical location of fast food restaurants. Specifically, we ask how the supply of fast food affects the obesity rates of 3 million school children and the weight gain of over 1 million pregnant women. We find that among 9th grade children, a fast food restaurant within a tenth of a mile of a school is associated with at least a 5. 2 percent increase in obesity rates. There is no discernable effect at . 25 miles and at . 5 miles. Among pregnant women, models with mother fixed effects indicate that a fast food restaurant within a half mile of her residence results in a 2. 5 percent increase in the probability of gaining over 20 kilos. The effect is larger, but less precisely estimated at . 1 miles. In contrast, the presence of non-fast food restaurants is uncorrelated with obesity and weight gain. Moreover, proximity to future fast food restaurants is uncorrelated with current obesity and weight gain, conditional on current proximity to fast food. The implied effects of fast-food on caloric intake are at least one order of magnitude smaller for mothers, which suggests that they are less constrained by travel costs than school children. Our results imply that policies restricting access to fast food near schools could have significant effects on obesity among school children, but similar policies restricting the availability of fast food in residential areas are unlikely to have large effects on adults. The authors thank John Cawley and participants in seminars at the NBER Summer Institute, the 2009 AEA Meetings, the ASSA 2009 Meetings, the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Chicago, The New School, the Tinbergen Institute, the Rady School at UCSD, and Williams College for helpful comments. We thank Cecilia Machado, Emilia Simeonova, Johannes Schmeider, and Joshua Goodman for excellent research assistance. We thank Glenn Copeland of the Michigan Dept. of Community Health, Katherine Hempstead and Matthew Weinberg of the New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services, Craig Edelman of the Pennsylvania Dept. of Health, Rachelle Moore of the Texas Dept. of State Health Services, and Gary Sammet and Joseph Shiveley of the Florida Department of Health for their help in accessing the data. The authors are solely responsible for the use that has been made of the data and for the contents of this article. 1 1. Introduction The prevalence of obesity and obesity related diseases has increased rapidly in the U. S. since the mid 1970s. At the same time, the number of fast food restaurants more than doubled over the same time period, while the number of other restaurants grew at a much slower pace according to the Census of Retail Trade (Chou, Grossman, and Saffer, 2004). In the public debate over obesity it is often assumed that the widespread availability of fast food restaurants is an important determinant of the dramatic increases in obesity rates. Policy makers in several cities have responded by restricting the availability or content of fast food, or by requiring posting of the caloric content of the meals (Mcbride, 2008; Mair et al. 2005). But the evidence linking fast food and obesity is not strong. Much of it is based on correlational studies in small data sets. In this paper we seek to identify the causal effect of increases in the supply of fast food restaurants on obesity rates. Specifically, using a detailed dataset on the exact geographical location restaurant establishments, we ask how proximity to fast food affects the obesity rates of 3 million school children and the weight gain of over 1 million pregnant women. For school children, we observe obesity rates for 9th graders in California over several years, and we are therefore able to estimate cross-sectional as well fixed effects models that control for characteristics of schools and neighborhoods. For mothers, we employ the information on weight gain during pregnancy reported in the Vital Statistics data for Michigan, New Jersey, and Texas covering fifteen years. 1 We focus on women who have at least two children so that we can follow a given woman across two pregnancies and estimate models that include mother fixed effects. The design employed in this study allows for a more precise identification of the effect of fast-food on obesity compared to the previous literature (summarized in Section 2). First, we observe information on weight for millions of individuals compared to at most tens of thousand in the standard data sets with weight information such as the NHANES and the BRFSS. This substantially increases the power of our estimates. Second, we exploit very detailed geographical location information, including distances The Vital Statistics data reports only the weight gain and not the weight at the beginning (or end) of the pregnancy. One advantage of focusing on a longitudinal measure of weight gain instead of a measure of weight in levels is that only the recent exposure to fast-food should matter. 1 2 of only one tenth of a mile. By comparing groups of individuals who are at only slightly different distances to a restaurant, we can arguably diminish the impact of unobservable differences in characteristics between the two groups. Third, we have a more precise idea of the timing of exposure than many previous studies: The 9th graders are exposed to fast food near their new school from September until the time of a spring fitness test, while weight gain during pregnancy pertains to the 9 months of pregnancy. While it is clear that fast food is generally unhealthy, it is not obvious a priori that changes in the availability of fast food should be expected to have an impact on health. On the one hand, it is possible that proximity to a fast food restaurant simply leads local consumers to substitute away from unhealthy food prepared at home or consumed in existing restaurants, without significant changes in the overall amount of unhealthy food consumed. On the other hand, proximity to a fast food restaurant could lower the monetary and non-monetary costs of accessing unhealthy food. In addition, proximity to fast food may increase consumption of unhealthy food even in the absence of any decrease in cost if individuals have self-control problems. Ultimately, the effect of changes in the supply of fast food on obesity is an empirical question. We find that among 9th grade children, the presence of a fast-food restaurant within a tenth of a mile of a school is associated with an increase of about 1. 7 percentage points in the fraction of students in a class who are obese relative to the presence at. 25 miles. This effect amounts to a 5. 2 percent increase in the incidence of obesity. Since grade 9 is the first year of high school and the fitness tests take place in the Spring, the period of fast-food exposure is approximately 30 weeks, implying an increased caloric intake of 30 to 100 calories per school-day. The effect is larger in models that include school fixed effects. Consistent with highly non–linear transportation costs, we find no discernable effect at . 25 miles and at . 5 miles. The effect is largest for Hispanic students and female students. Among pregnant women, we find that a fast food restaurant within a half mile of a residence results in 0. 19 percentage points higher probability of gaining over 20kg. This amounts to a 2. 5 percent increase in the probability of gaining over 20 kilos. The effect is larger at . 1 miles, but in contrast to the results for 9th graders, it is still discernable at . 25 miles and at . 5 miles. The increase in weight implies an increased caloric intake of 1 to 4 3 calories per day in the pregnancy period. The effect varies across races and educational levels. It is largest for African American mothers and for mothers with a high school education or less. It is zero for mothers with a college degree or an associate’s degree. Overall, our findings suggest that increases in the supply of fast food restaurants have a significant effect on obesity, at least in some groups. However, it is in principle possible that our estimates reflect unmeasured shifts in the demand for fast food. Fast food chains are likely to open new restaurants where they expect demand to be strong, and higher demand for unhealthy food is almost certainly correlated with higher risk of obesity. The presence of unobserved determinants of obesity that may be correlated with increases in the number of fast food restaurants would lead us to overestimate the role of fast food restaurants. We can not entirely rule out this possibility. However, three pieces of evidence lend some credibility to our interpretation. First, we find that observable characteristics of the schools are not associated with changes in the availability of a fast food in the immediate vicinity of a school. Furthermore, we show that within the geographical area under consideration, fast food restaurants are uniformly distributed over space. Specifically, fast food restaurants are equally likely to be located within . 1, . 25, and . 5 miles of a school. We also find that after conditioning on mother fixed effects, the observable characteristics of mothers that predict high weight gain are negatively (not positively) related to the presence of a fast-food chain, suggesting that any bias in our estimates may be downward, not upward. While these findings do not necessarily imply that changes in the supply of fast food restaurants are orthogonal to unobserved determinants of obesity, they are at least consistent with our identifying assumption. Second, while we find that proximity to a fast food restaurant is associated with increases in obesity rates and weight gains, proximity to non fast food restaurants has no discernible effect on obesity rates or weight gains. This suggests that our estimates are not just capturing increases in the local demand for restaurant establishments. Third, we find that while current proximity to a fast food restaurant affects current obesity rates, proximity to future fast food restaurants, controlling for current proximity, has no effect on current obesity rates and weight gains. Taken together, the weight of the 4 evidence is consistent with a causal effect of fast food restaurants on obesity rates among 9th graders and on weight gains among pregnant women. The results on the impact of fast-food on obesity are consistent with a model in which access to fast-foods increases obesity by lowering food prices or by tempting consumers with self-control problems. 2 Differences in travel costs between students and mothers could explain the different effects of proximity. Ninth graders have higher travel costs in the sense that they are constrained to stay near the school during the school day, and hence are more affected by fast-food restaurants that are very close to the school. For this group, proximity to fast-food has a quite sizeable effect on obesity. In contrast, for pregnant women, proximity to fast-food has a quantitatively small (albeit statistically significant) impact on weight gain. Our results suggest that a ban on fast-foods in the immediate proximity of schools could have a sizeable effect on obesity rates among affected students. However, a similar attempt to reduce access to fast food in residential neighborhoods would be unlikely to have much effect on adult consumers. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we review the existing literature. In Section 3 we describe our data sources. In Section 4, we present our econometric models and our empirical findings. Section 5 concludes. 2. Background While the main motivation for focusing on school children and pregnant women is the availability of geographically detailed data on weight measures for a very large sample, they are important groups to study in their own right. Among school aged children 6-19 rates of overweight have soared from about 5% in the early 1970s to 16% in 1999-2002 (Hedley et al. 2004). These rates are of particular concern given that children who are overweight are more likely to be overweight as adults, and are increasingly suffering from diseases associated with obesity while still in childhood (Krebs and Jacobson, 2003). At the same time, the fraction of women gaining over 60 2 Consumers with self-control problems are not as tempted by fatty foods if they first have to incur the transportation cost of walking to a fast-food restaurant. Only when a fast-food is right near the school, the temptation of the fast-food looms large. For an overview of the role of self-control in economic applications, see DellaVigna (2009). A model of cues in consumption (Laibson, 2001) has similar implications: a fast-food that is in immediate proximity from the school is more likely to trigger a cue that leads to over-consumption. 5 pounds during pregnancy doubled between 1989 and 2000 (Lin, forthcoming). Excessive weight gain during pregnancy is often associated with higher rates of hypertension, C-section, and large-for-gestational age infants, as well as with a higher incidence of later maternal obesity (Gunderson and Abrams, 2000; Rooney and Schauberger, 2002; Thorsdottir et al. , 2002; Wanjiku and Raynor, 2004). 3 Moreover, Figure 1 shows that the incidence of low APGAR scores (APGAR scores less than 8), an indicator of poor fetal health, increases sharply with weight gain above about 20 kilograms. Critics of the fast food industry point to several features that may make fast food less healthy than other types of restaurant food (Spurlock, 2004; Schlosser, 2002). These include low monetary and time costs, large portions, and high calorie density of signature menu items. Indeed, energy densities for individual food items are often so high that it would be difficult for individuals consuming them not to exceed their average recommended dietary intakes (Prentice and Jebb, 2003). Some consumers may be particularly vulnerable. In two randomized experimental trials involving 26 obese and 28 lean adolescents, Ebbeling et al. (2004) compared caloric intakes on â€Å"unlimited fast food days† and â€Å"no fast food days†. They found that obese adolescents had higher caloric intakes on the fast food days, but not on the no fast food days. The largest fast food chains are also characterized by aggressive marketing to children. One experimental study of young children 3 to 5 offered them identical pairs of foods and beverages, the only difference being that some of the foods were in McDonald’s packaging. Children were significantly more likely to choose items perceived to be from McDonald’s (Robinson et al.2007). Chou, Grossman, and Rashad (forthcoming) use data from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) 1979 and 1997 cohorts to examine the effect of exposure to fast food advertising on overweight among children and adolescents. In ordinary least squares (OLS) models, they find significant effects in most specifications. 4 3 According to the Centers for Disease Control, obesity and excessive weight gain are independently associated with poor pregnancy outcomes. Recommended weight gain is lower for obese women than in others. (http://www. cdc.gov/pednss/how_to/read_a_data_table/prevalence_tables/birth_outcome. htm) 4 They also estimate instrumental variables (IV) models using the price of advertising as an instrument. However, while they find a significant â€Å"first stage†, they do not report the IV estimates because tests 6 Still, a recent review of the considerable epidemiological literature about the relationship between fast food and obesity (Rosenheck, 2008) concluded that â€Å"Findings from observational studies as yet are unable to demonstrate a causal link between fast food consumption and weight gain or obesity†. Most epidemiological studies have longitudinal designs in which large groups of participants are tracked over a period of time and changes in their body mass index (BMI) are correlated with baseline measures of fast food consumption. These studies typically find a positive link between obesity and fast food consumption. However, existing observational studies cannot rule out potential confounders such as lack of physical activity, consumption of sugary beverages, and so on. food. 5 There is also a rapidly growing economics literature on obesity, reviewed in Philipson and Posner (2008). Economic studies place varying amounts of emphasis on increased caloric consumption as a primary determinant of obesity (a trend that is consistent with the increased availability of fast food). Using data from the NLSY, Lakdawalla and Philipson (2002) conclude that about 40% of the increase in obesity from 1976 to 1994 is attributable to lower food prices (and increased consumption) while the remainder is due to reduced physical activity in market and home production. Bleich et al. (2007) examine data from several developed countries and conclude that increased caloric intake is the main contributor to obesity. Cutler et al. (2003) examine food diaries as well as time use data from the last few decades and conclude that rising obesity is linked to increased caloric intake and not to reduced energy expenditure. 6 7 Moreover, all of these studies rely on self-reported consumption of fast suggest that advertising exposure is not endogenous. They also estimate, but do not report individual fixed effects models, because these models have much larger standard errors than the ones reported. 5 A typical question is of the form â€Å"How often do you eat food from a place like McDonald’s, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Pizza Hut, Burger King or some other fast food restaurant? † 6 They suggest that the increased caloric intake is from greater frequency of snacking, and not from increased portion sizes at restaurants or fattening meals at fast food restaurants. They further suggest that technological change has lowered the time cost of food preparation which in turn has lead to more frequent consumption of food. Finally, they speculate that people with self control problems are over-consuming in response to the fall in the time cost of food preparation. Cawley (1999) discusses a similar behavioral theory of obesity as a consequence of addiction. 7 Courtemanche and Carden examine the impact on obesity of Wal-Mart and warehouse club retailers such as Sam’s club, Costco and BJ’s wholesale club which compete on price. They link store location data to individual data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS. ) They find that non-grocery selling Wal-Mart stores reduce weight while non-grocery selling stores and warehouse clubs either reduce weight or have no effect. Their explanation is that reduced prices for everyday purchases expand real 7 A series of recent papers explicitly focus on fast food restaurants as potential contributors to obesity. Chou et al. (2004) estimate models combining state-level price data with individual demographic and weight data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance surveys and find a positive association between obesity and the per capita number of restaurants (fast food and others) in the state. Rashad, Grossman, and Chou (2005) present similar findings using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Anderson and Butcher (2005) investigate the effect of school food policies on the BMI of adolescent students using data from the NLSY97. They assume that variation in financial pressure on schools across counties provides exogenous variation in availability of junk food in the schools. They find that a 10 percentage point increase in the probability of access to junk food at school can lead to about 1 percent increase in students BMI. Anderson, Butcher and Schanzenbach (2007) examine the elasticity of children’s BMI with respect to mother’s BMI and find that it has increased over time, suggesting an increased role for environmental factors in child obesity. Anderson, Butcher, and Levine (2003) find that maternal employment is related to childhood obesity, and speculate that employed mothers might spend more on fast food. Cawley and Liu (2007) use time use data and find that employed women spend less time cooking and are more likely to purchase prepared foods. The paper that is closest to ours is a recent study by Anderson and Matsa (2009) that focuses on the link between eating out and obesity using the presence of Interstate highways in rural areas as an instrument for restaurant density. Interstate highways increase restaurant density for communities adjacent to highways, reducing the travel costs of eating out for people in these communities. They find no evidence of a causal link between restaurants and obesity. Using data from the USDA, they argue that the lack of an effect is due to the presence of selection bias in restaurant patrons –people who eat out also consume more calories when they eat at homeand the fact that large portions at restaurants are offset by lower caloric intake at other times of the day. Our paper differs from Anderson and Matsa (2009) in four important dimensions, and these four differences are likely to explain the difference in our findings. incomes, enabling households to substitute away from cheap unhealthy foods to more expensive but healthier alternatives. 8 (i) First, our data allow us to distinguish between fast food restaurants and other restaurants. We can therefore estimate separately the impact of fast-foods and of other restaurants on obesity. In contrast, Anderson and Matsa do not have data on fast food restaurants and therefore focus on the effect of any restaurant on obesity. This difference turns out to be crucial, because when we estimate the effect of any restaurant on obesity using our data we also find no discernible effect on obesity. (ii) Second, we have a very large sample that allows us to identify even small effects, such as mean increases of 50 grams in the weight gain of mothers during pregnancy. Our estimates of weight gain for mothers are within the confidence interval of Anderson and Matsa’s two stage least squares estimates. Put differently, based on their sample size, our statistically significant estimates would have been considered statistically insignificant. (iii) Third, our data give us the exact location of each restaurant, school and mother. The spatial richness of our data allows us to examine the effect of fast food restaurants on obesity at a very detailed geographical level. For example, we can distinguish the effect at . 1 miles from the effect at . 25 miles. As it turns out, this feature is quite important, because the effects that we find are geographically extremely localized. For example, we find that fast food restaurant have an effect on 9th graders only for distances of . 1 miles or less. By contrast, Anderson and Matsa use a city as the level of geographical analysis. It is not surprising that at this level of aggregation the estimated effect is zero. (iv) Fourth, Anderson and Matsa’s identification strategy differs from ours, since we do not use an instrument for fast-food availability and focus instead on changes in the availability of fast-foods at very close distances. The populations under consideration are also different, and may react differently to proximity to a fast food restaurant. Anderson and Matsa focus on predominantly white rural communities, while we focus on primarily urban 9th graders and urban mothers. We document that the effects vary considerable depending on race, with blacks and Hispanics having the largest effect. Indeed, when Dunn (2008) uses an instrumental variables approach similar to the one used Anderson and Matsa based on proximity to freeways, he finds no effect for rural areas and for 9 whites in suburban areas, but strong effect for blacks and Hispanics. As we show below, we also find stronger effects for minorities. Taken together, these four differences lead us to conclude that the evidence in Anderson and Matsa is consistent with our evidence. 8 In summary, there is strong evidence of correlations between fast food consumption and obesity. It has been more difficult to demonstrate a causal role for fast food. In this paper we tap new data in an attempt to test the causal connection between fast food and obesity. 3. Data Sources and Summary Statistics Data for this project comes from three sources. (a) School Data. Data on children comes from the California public schools for the years 1999 and 2001 to 2007. The observations for 9th graders, which we focus on in this paper, represent 3. 06 million student-year observations. In the spring, California 9th graders are given a fitness assessment, the FITNESSGRAM ®. Data is reported at the class level in the form of the percentage of students who are obese, and who have acceptable levels of abdominal strength, aerobic capacity, flexibility, trunk strength, and upper body strength. Obesity is measured using actual body fat measures, which are considerably more accurate than the usual BMI measure (Cawley and Burkhauser, 2006). Data is also reported for sub-groups within the school (e. g. by race and gender) provided the cells have at least 10 students. Since grade 9 is the first year of high school and the fitness tests take place in the Spring, this impact corresponds to approximately 30 weeks of fast-food exposure. 9 This administrative data set is merged to information about schools (including the percent black, white, Hispanic, and Asian, percent immigrant, pupil/teacher ratios, fraction eligible for free lunch etc. ) from the National Center for Education Statistic’s Common Core of Data, as well as to the Start test scores for the 9th grade. The location of the school was also geocoded using ArcView. Finally, we merged in information. 8 9 See also Brennan and carpenter (2009). In very few cases, a high school is in the same location as a middle school, in which case the estimates reflect a longer-term impact of fast-food. 10 about the nearest Census block group of the school from the 2000 Census including the median earnings, percent high-school degree, percent unemployed, and percent urban. (b) Mothers Data. Data on mothers come from Vital Statistics Natality data from Michigan, New Jersey, and Texas. These data are from birth certificates, and cover all births in these states from 1989 to 2003 (from 1990 in Michigan). For these three states, we were able to gain access to confidential data including mothers names, birth dates, and addresses, which enabled us both to construct a panel data set linking births to the same mother over time, and to geocode her location (again using ArcView). The Natality data are very rich, and include information about the mother’s age, education, race and ethnicity; whether she smoked during pregnancy; the child’s gender, birth order, and gestation; whether it was a multiple birth; and maternal weight gain. We restrict the sample to singleton births and to mothers with at least two births in the sample, for a total of over 3. 5 million births. (c) Restaurant Data. Restaurant data with geo-coding information come from the National Establishment Time Series Database (Dun and Bradstreet). These data are used by all major banks, lending institutions, insurance and finance companies as the primary system for creditworthiness assessment of firms. As such, it is arguably more precise and comprehensive than yellow pages and business directories. 10 We obtained a panel of virtually all firms in Standard Industrial Classification 58 from 1990 to 2006, with names and addresses. Using this data, we constructed several different measures of â€Å"fast food† and â€Å"other restaurants,† as discussed further in Appendix 1. In this paper, the benchmark definition of fast-food restaurants includes only the top-10 fast-food chains, namely, Mc Donalds, Subway, Burger King, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, Little Caesars, KFC, Wendy’s, Dominos Pizza, and Jack In The Box. We also show estimates using a broader definition that includes both chain restaurants and independent burger and pizza restaurants. Finally, we also measure the supply of non-fast food restaurants. The definition of â€Å"other restaurants† changes with the definition of fast food. Appendix Table 1 lists the top 10 fast food chains as well as examples of restaurants that we did not classify as fast food. The yellow pages are not intended to be a comprehensive listing of businesses they are a paid advertisement. Companies that do not pay are not listed. 10 11 Matching. Matching was performed using information on latitude and longitude of restaurant location. Specifically, we match the schools and mother’s residence to the closest restaurants using ArcView software. For the school data, we match the results on testing for the spring of year t with restaurant availability in year t-1. For the mother data, we match the data on weight gain during pregnancy with restaurant availability in the year that overlaps the most with the pregnancy. Summary Statistics. Using the data on restaurant, school, and mother’s locations, we constructed indicators for whether there are fast food or other restaurants within . 1, . 25, and . 5 miles of either the school or the mother’s residence. Table 1a shows summary characteristics of the schools data set by distance to a fast food restaurant. Here, as in most of the paper, we use the narrow definition of fast-food, including the top-10 fast-food chains. Relatively few schools are within . 1 miles of a fast food restaurant, and the characteristics of these schools are somewhat different than those of the average California school. Only 7% of schools have a fast food restaurant within . 1 miles, while 65% of all schools have a fast food restaurant within 1/2 of a mile. 11 Schools within . 1 miles of a fast food restaurant have more Hispanic students, a slightly higher fraction of students eligible for free lunch, and lower test scores. They are also located in poorer and more urban areas. The last row indicates that schools near a fast food restaurant have a higher incidence of obese students than the average California school. Table 1b shows a similar summary of the mother data. Again, mothers who live near fast food restaurants have different characteristics than the average mother. They are younger, less educated, more likely to be black or Hispanic, and less likely to be married. 4. Empirical Analysis We begin in Section 4. 1 by describing our econometric models and our identifying assumptions. In Section 4. 2 we show the correlation between restaurant location and student characteristics for the school sample, and the correlation between The average school in our sample had 4 fast foods within 1 mile and 24 other restaurants within the same radius. 11 12 restaurant location and mother characteristics for the mother sample. Our empirical estimates for students and mothers are in Section 4. 3 and 4. 4, respectively. 13 4. 1 Econometric Specifications Our empirical specification for schools is (1) Yst = ? F1st + ? F25st + ? F50st + ? ’ N1st + ? ’ N25st + ? ’ N50st + ? Xst + ? Zst + ds + est where Yst is the fraction of students in school s in a given grade who are obese in year t; F1st is an indicator equal to 1 if there is a fast food restaurant within . 1 mile from the school in year t; F25st is an indicator equal to 1 if there is a fast food restaurant within . 25 miles from the school in year t; F50st is an indicator equal to 1 if there is a fast food restaurant within . 5 mile from the school in year t; N1st, N25st and N50st are similar indicators for the presence of non-fast food restaurants within . 1, . 25 and . 5 miles from the school; ds is a fixed effect for the school. The vectors Xst and Zst include school and neighborhood time-varying characteristics that can potentially affect obesity rates. Specifically, Xst is a vector of school-grade specific characteristics including fraction blacks, fraction native Americans, fraction Hispanic, fraction immigrants, fraction female, fraction eligible for free lunch, whether the school is qualified for Title I funding, pupil/teacher ratio, and 9th grade tests scores, as well as school-district characteristics such as fraction immigrants, fraction of non-English speaking students (LEP/ELL), share of IEP students. Zst is a vector of characteristics of the Census block closest to the school including median income, median earnings, average household size, median rent, median housing value, percent white, percent black, percent Asian, percent.

Explain Formally The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis Economics Essay

Explain Formally The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis Economics Essay Clearly as countries strive for increased growth they attempt to produce greater output and logic dictates that with greater output, ceteris paribus, there must be greater input and thus a depletion of resources from our environment. Simultaneously greater output leads to greater levels of emissions and waste, thus the carrying capacity of the biosphere will be exceeded sooner. Simon Kuznetss Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis states that economic inequality initially increases, reaches a critical threshold, and then decreases as the country develops (Economic Growth and Income Inequality, 1955). The hypothesis is shown by Figure 1 below. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6b/Kuznets_curve.png Figure It is important to realise the relationship of the EKC shows a correlation between environmental equality and income, not causation. This simply means that a trend has been realised between income and economic inequality which states that initially as income rises so does inequality, however at a certain threshold inequality begins to diminish, and the reason for this change is not immediately apparent. The concept that environmental equality is influenced by economic growth originated from earlier economic theory, as in many 1970s theoretical literature on pollution and growth, optimal pollution control models have inverted U curves of pollution implicitly embedded in them (Selden, 1994). There are two main economic explanations for the Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Firstly the environment can be viewed as a luxury good. This means that although initially individuals are not willing to trade consumption for environmental investment, at a certain level of income individuals begin to increase their expenditure on the environment to enjoy its benefits. It can therefore be argued that economic development is a means to environmental improvement and thus whilst initially the environment will suffer from growth, it will benefit from the economic prosperity in the long run. Secondly as countries experience growth and income increases there are recognised historical structural development stages to the countrys economy much like, as Roslow noted, the moving from traditional to industrial economies and then to a mature mass consumption economy (The Stages of Economic Growth, 1960). For example, in a Less Developed Country (LDC), a structural transformation from primitive agriculture, through manufacturing and into services would initially utilise the environment efficiently through agricultural trade, with greater income this might transform into manufacturing which is highly dependent on environmental resources and also carries large negative externalities such as pollution. However once again, with further growth industry and trade will move towards services which have the least impact on the environment. The study by Syrquin in 1989 econometrically ties structural changes to economic growth and is often used to discuss the EKC hypothesis (Grossman, et al., 1995). It is obvious to conclude that if these developmental stages occur and the transitions between the stages correlate with specific per capita income levels, then a relationship where pollution levels initially rise before subsequently falling, as average incomes increase. Unrah and Moomaw argue that we cannot be sure whether the stages of economic growth are a deterministic process that all countries must pass through, or simply a description of the development history of a specific group of countries during the 19th and 20th centuries that may never again take place (An alternative analysis of apparent EKC-type transitions, 1998). We can look at the turning point in the EKC from increasing environmental inequality to diminishing environmental inequality as a change of individual interest from self-interest to social interest. However Arrow (2000) points out that the EKC provides very little information about the mechanisms by which economic growth affects the environment. For example, as income increases industry developments and innovations may have reduced negative externalities on the environment. Also with greater national income and wealth there is greater demand on the authorities for environmental regulations. There have been several empirical and analytical studies of the EKC hypothesis and whilst some support the conclusions of Kuznets others counter his findings. There is however, little debate that many pollution emissions in the developed countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have stabilised or indeed declined over recent years whilst these same countries per capital incomes have simultaneously increased (An alternative analysis of apparent EKC-type transitions, 1998). Unrah and Moomaw demonstrate in their 1998 empirical study of France GDP growth against CO2 levels an inverted U-shaped curve is produced which supports Kuznets hypothesis (An alternative analysis of apparent EKC-type transitions, 1998). Image Figure France CO2 vs GDP 1950-1992 Grossman and Krueger in 1994 produced a study with an N-shaped curve where after a high enough threshold there were increases in environmental degradation. Grossman also in 1994 found that the turning point is sooner for an obvious short term environmental hazard for the local population (Grossman, et al., 1995). Arrow in 1995 stated that responsiveness is not immediate so income growth does not spontaneously bring a reduction to environmental degradation. As such Arrow concludes that while short term indicators would support Kuznetss hypothesis, long term indicators would not. The huge potential for economic growth through effective utilisation of the environment has made efficient and socially desirable management of environment resources is a key issue within economics. The environment surrounding each individual economy has always been fundamental to the performance of economic growth. Along with creating economic prosperity the environment also performs the essential function of supporting life and thus managed with care and responsibility. As has been seen through history, exploitation of the environment which has provided crucial economic inputs may also be the instrument which impairs the earths ability to support life. For example, in last decade we have seen the emergence of concern about how economic expansion of the world economy is leading to irreparable global damage (Silbert, 2009). As such decisions regarding the environmental trade-off between economic growth and preservation require careful consideration from political authorities. Kuznets EKC Hypothesis EKC Analysis Conclusions One policy proposed by economists is to allow countries to economically grow out of environmentally damaging activity. Looking at countries with already large economies, we see signs of environmental regulation such as emissions standards, extensive recycling programs, and limited timber harvesting. The economists supporting a policy that initially allows for environmental degradation assert that if a country can achieve sufficient economic growth in a short period of time then perhaps environmental damage should be tolerated. A well-known hypothesis providing support for a policy that emphasizes economic growth at the expense of environmental protection is the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. It posits that countries in the development process will see their levels of environmental degradation increase until some income threshold is met and then afterwards decrease. If true, economic policies should allow extensive, although not necessarily absolute, use of the environment for growth purposes. But carrying out such policies involves inherent dangers. If developing countries decide to overlook environmental protection by counting on rising incomes to abate environmental damage the consequences could be devastating. The most pressing danger is that additional environmental degradation could cause some irreversible and significant harm. This could occur before the predicted income threshold is met. The other concern with counting on incomes to reduce environmental damage is that the EKC hypothesis could easily be incorrect and relying on its predictions would lead to consistently insufficient protection. This paper evaluates the validity of the EKC hypothesis and argues that it is not a sound basis for policy formation and justification with so much at stake. The plan of the paper is as follows. Section II examines the basis for the EKC hypothesis and conditions under which it may accurately predict a countrys future environmental status. Section III briefly summarizes empirical studies investigating EKCs and looks at the findings of these studies. Section IV identifies the inherent dangers in determining environmental policy based upon the EKC hypothesis. Some concerns are relevant if the hypothesis does not hold and others are present even if it proves a correct forecaster of environmental quality. Section V concludes with my assessment of how well the hypothesis works as a justification for dubious environmental policies. Section II: The Concept of the Environmental Kuznets Curve The EKC hypothesis asserts that countries will naturally move from relatively low environmentally degrading activity to highly degrading activity and then, once a certain income threshold is achieved, will proceed to less degrading activity once again. This assertion allows one to predict the relative level of environmental damage being caused by a country by looking at GDP per capita. However, this prediction is relative to individual countries. In other words, each country has its own EKC, based upon resource endowment, social customs, etc., from which it progresses along relative to its GDP. A graphical model of the hypothesis helps illustrate the inverted U shape of the relationship: Environmental Damage Y* Income per capita The y-axis represents the amount of environmental damage due to economic activity and the x-axis represents income per capita. Y* represents the threshold income, sometimes referred to as the turning point. That point signifies the income level at which environmental damage per capita begins to recede. It is important to note that the theoretical EKC graph does not explicitly express time as a dimension and for this reason the use of the EKC hypothesis to justify policy decision an action that by definition incorporates time would appear inadequate. Only by comparing two different countries can the inverted U shaped curve be derived as seen above. However each country possesses its own unique EKC and therefore each countrys policies should be organized accordingly. In order for the graph to show an EKC, and thereby be valid as policy justification, we must incorporate a time dimension. We find a time dimension along the x-axis. The EKC hypothesis assumes that changes in income per capita only occur over time. By including this supposition of changes in income inherently signifying time, the graph can now show an EKC for a specific country. The identification of a countrys particular EKC provides a basis for using it to influence policy. Possessing the theoretical model by which t he EKC hypothesis is used for economic policy we turn our focus to explaining why the inverted U shape exists. There are two primary explanations for the proposed shape of the EKC. The first examines the history of developed countries and the paths they took to achieve development. The second reflects the changing preference for environmental quality as incomes rise. Historically, all developed countries economies were originally based upon agriculture, a state that produced little environmental damage. Their economies later switched to a much more environmentally damaging state that focused on industry and manufacturing. Finally, upon switching from heavy industry to the now-prevalent service-based economies the levels of environmentally damage fell in most developed countries. Two main factors lead to environmental damage that occurrs during industrialization. First, the harmful by-products of production damage the environment. High levels of pollution and water contamination accompany the expansion of industry. The second factor is the increased consumption of natural resources. The extensive over-use of land, deforestation and mining of mountains is a form of environmental damage in and of itself. A common conclusion of this development pattern is that LDCs must pass through the same phases in order to achieve economic growth. Furthermore, if forced to adhere to strict environmental regulations, LDCs will be at an economic disadvantage compared to the already developed countries. Many LDCs point to this competitive disadvantage when rejecting global environmental standards. The next stage of development saw industrial nations switching to service-based economies, a trend that all global GDP leaders tend towards. During this phase the income threshold of for the EKCs for certain substances appear to have been reached. Service-based economies are able to avoid many of the most environmentally damaging economic activities. Also, highly resource-dependant production is cut significantly which reduces the impacts of resource input and harmful emissions. The graph reflects the switch from an industrial to service-based economy somewhere around point Y*. The decreasing industrial production decreases the environmental damage despite the rising GDP associated with the service sector economy. Environmental impacts also fall as a result of improved technology discovered in developed countries. In some cases technology leads to a more efficient use of inputs. Other technological advancements make it possible to restrict the harmful effects that economic activity have on the environment. The second reason that a high-income level can reduce environmental damage is by altering the demand for environmental quality. Known as the income effect, sufficiently high GDP per capita often leads individuals to place environmental quality above additional economic growth. The aggregation of these individual preferences plays an integral role in determining the income threshold. The EKC income threshold aggregates all environmentally damaging agents into a single numerical value. However, taken individually economists can place dollar values on the turning points of damaging agents. For example, in a 1997 paper by Cole, Rayner and Bates, the authors found the turning point of CO and NO2 emissions to be around $9,900 and $14,700, respectively. Using environmental quality preference as an explanation, the income threshold represents the income level per capita at which the preference for environmental quality outweighs the preference for additional income. This change in preference occurs on a public level, rather than a private one. Microeconomic decisions to support more environmentally friendly goods and services cannot account for the income effect. The issue is instead a matter of public policy. The changes in environmental standards reflect political pressure on the federal government and state governments. Effective lobbyists have altered the political and social landscape to favour one of increased environmental quality. Despite the clean nature of high-income countries it remains difficult for EKC supporters to explain certain things such as the fact that the United States is, by far, the worlds largest greenhouse gas emitter. Defenders of the EKC hypothesis say this is due to the incredibly large economy of the U.S. and that the seemingly large figures are, proportionate to GDP, not as astonishing as they appear. The only other defense to the greenhouse gas emission statistic is that the income threshold may not have been reached. According to the EKC hypothesis, changes to evolving economies and the individual preference for environmental quality combine to determine the income threshold. However, whether or not an inverted U shaped curve exists at all is still up for debate. Section III: Evidence For and Against the EKC Hypothesis Evidence regarding the EKC hypothesis is circumstantial and inconclusive. Most early studies that supported the hypothesis focused on a single damaging agent, such as a pollutant. Identifying key characteristics associated with agents that have been studied we find that only certain types of agents exhibit an EKC. Evidence supporting the EKC first began in 1994 when Selden and Song found an EKC for SO2 (Environmental quality and development: Is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions?, 1994). A later test in 1995 by economists Grossman also found SO2 emissions to follow an EKC (Grossman, et al., 1995). They found a turning point between $4,000 and $6,000. Another early documentation of EKC support came from Theodore Panayotou who found the turning point of deforestation to be $823. After the initial studies, other economists began to investigate the validity of the EKC hypothesis and found refuting evidence. In the 1997 paper by Cole, Rayner and Bates, they found no EKC for traffic, nitrates or methane. A different study in 1997 by Horvath examined energy use and found no EKC; rather, energy use per capita rose steadily with increased income. Evidence appears to support the EKC hypothesis only for a limited type of damaging agents. The emission SO2 is found in urban waste areas and is thereby characterized by its locality. Deforestation also reflects a situation involving a specific location. Damaging agents that affect only a particular site tend to show EKCs. However, a damaging agent such as traffic is plain to see and also affects certain areas heavily. In this case the agent is dominated by a scale effect increased activity leads to increased environmental impact. While traffic-related pollution is generally iterated by population size, damaging agents such as energy production by-products increase with GDP per capita. Section IV: Dangers of the EKC Hypothesis as Policy Justification There exist many dangers in allowing an economy to simply grow out of environmentally damaging activity. Some of these dangers arise because the EKC hypothesis does not hold true in all cases. Others exist even if we assume the hypothesis as an accurate predictor of environmental conditions. The following is a list of concerns regarding the EKC hypothesis: (I) It remains inconclusive if most damaging agents follow the EKC. (II) The threshold income may be irrelevantly high or the temporary period of increasing environmental damage too long. (III) The decrease in environmental damage seen in developed countries may reflect the production of dirty products abroad and subsequent importation. (IV) The absorptive capacity of our earth is unknown. (V) EKCs may only exist in certain political atmospheres. A detailed examination of the above concerns illustrates the inherent dangers in accepting the EKC hypothesis and afterwards using it to justify policy. As discussed above, only local and regional damaging agents show signs of EKCs. Other difficult to detect agents may simply increase with GDP per capita. This discovery leaves open to question whether more agents than not respond to income increases. If there exist more agents that do not respond then attempting to grow past these impacts would be impossible. Many damaging agents may respond to income levels, but not until GDP per capita approaches out-of-reach levels. If in a developed country, the turning point for a damaging agent is above, say, $50,000 then neglecting to react will create damage for a considerable amount of time. Over the time it takes to achieve the turning point, the environmental damage may prove more costly than its worth. Obviously, in an LDC the turning point value needs only to be considerably lower and still have the same adverse effects. It is important to note that it is unclear if forgoing the opportunity for economic growth may is the right or wrong decision. Nonetheless, using solely the EKC hypothesis to justify this action remains unwise, as the outcome is not known. Another consideration that challenges the EKC evidence is that wealthy countries may be importing dirty products, thereby contributing to environmental degradation; the only difference is that the degradation is not domestic. The first hypothesis to bring up this possibility was the Pollution Haven hypothesis. It states that developed countries export their dirty industries to LDCs whose governments have more lax environmental standards. Many economists discounted this hypothesis with strong evidence showing that capital flows do not follow environmental regulations. However, this does not exclude the possibility of dirty industries existing in LDCs and coincidently exporting their products to wealthy countries. In this case, wealthy countries only started along the downward slope on the EKC by domestically reducing environmental damage. When taken globally their increased consumption due to income may still be increasingly damaging. Another danger is that leaving the quality of our environment subject to economic activity, even for only a short period, may be disastrous. The ability of the earth to absorb the damaging agents produced by economic activity, called absorptive capacity, is not yet known. A good example is global warming. More and more studies confirm that rising global temperatures are due at least in part to human activity. Predictions regarding the consequences of this change are still being debated. But further activity could push the environments limits to a point that causes serious repercussions for humanity. A final concern is that even if developing countries can achieve high levels of income per capita they may not possess a political atmosphere conducive to environmental protection. Assuming that the aggregate turning point is in a country reached, that country it is not necessarily going enact protection. Countries that possess sufficient demand for environmental quality still only achieve it with policy revisions. The most successful avenues for obtaining environmental quality are lobbyists. Without a government that responds to political pressure by these public groups there is no reason to believe that its policies will reflect the demand for a cleaner environment. In addition to this point, it also remains to be seen if all cultures place similar values on environmental quality. While constituents of currently developed countries may desire protection, countries in the process of developing may reach a point of equivalent income and still not demand environmental quality. Convers ely, they may actually demand protection earlier. Section V: Conclusion The questions and concerns about the EKC hypothesis that I have examined in this paper raise significant doubt as to the wisdom of adopting environmental policy based upon the EKC hypothesis. Even assuming its validity, the EKC hypothesis generates considerable doubt as to its effectiveness at balancing economic growth with environmental protection. Given these doubts policies must be, at most, based only partially on predictions by the EKC hypothesis. The correct balance between environmental protection and economic growth continues to be debated. Both of the opposing views present important arguments. Obviously, having either extreme either unhindered economic activity or overly protective environmental measures is an inadequate solution. The largest problem facing the debate is the lack of knowledge regarding the degree of robustness present in our earths environment. Still unclear of its ability to offer its resources and to soak up our by-products, our only course of action is to, with both needs in mind, tread carefully.

A Re-Vision of Teaching: Portrait of a Teacher in Process Essay

A Re-Vision of Teaching: Portrait of a Teacher in Process In Adrienne Rich's essay, When We Dead Awaken: Writing As Re-Vision, Rich writes about re-vision as the act of seeing with fresh eyes, of entertaining an old text from a new critical direction (629). RichÆ’ÃŽs idea of looking at a subject with fresh eyes is a strategy that I decided to employ to reflect on my own teaching practices. In using re-vision to examine one particular lesson that I taught on Adrienne Rich/feminism and another lesson on revision source integration, I was able to see my lessons from a new perspective. Just as Alice Walker looked at her mother unconventional piece of art, a garden, in her essay, In Search of Our Mothers Gardens, I began to see my lessons as unconventional pieces of artwork in this same way (746). Examining my lessons from this artistic perspective enabled me not only to explain the process itself, but also to discover what was missing from my first lesson, the role of the student. Looking at my process ultimately helped me to redefine studentsÆ’ÃŽ roles in the classroom. If I had recorded my feminism Adrienne Rich lesson this is what it would look like: fifteen minutes of me talking. This talk begins with me introducing an article in The Chronicle of Higher Education, which was written by a first-year composition teacher, Kate Dube. I bring the class attention to the observations she discovers from her class when they discuss feminism. I mention a few misconceptions about feminism, some students' thoughts on feminism, and reasons that Dube thinks feminism is a necessity due to the fact that there is still inequality between men and women today. Reading the class a statistic ... ...The Computer Delusion. The Atlantic Online. July 1997 . Rich, Adrienne. When We Dead Awaken: Writing as Re-Vision. Ways of Reading. 6th Edition. Bartholomae, David, and Anthony Petrosky. New York: Bedford/ St. Martins, 2002: 625-640. Rodriguez, Richard. The Achievement of Desire. Ways of Reading. 6th Edition. Bartholomae, David, and Anthony Petrosky. New York: Bedford/ St. Martins, 2002: 652-670. Tate Online. Tate Online: British and International Modern Art. 10 December 2004. . Walker, Alice. In Search of Our MotherÆ’ÃŽs Gardens. Ways of Reading. 6th Edition. Bartholomae, David, and Anthony Petrosky. New York: Bedford/ St. Martins, 2002: 738-747. Winterson, Jeanette. Art Objects Essays on Ecstacy and Effrontery. New York: Vintage International, 1995: 3-20

Northeastern Co-ops :: University Work Experience Students Essays

Northeastern Co-ops The key to a well-rounded college career is having a combination of experiential education and academic studies. Having the opportunity to dapple into your field of study one year into college is an experience not offered to most students. It allows the student a chance to grow up and join the real world, for six-months at a time. Northeastern University, in the heart of Boston, Massachusetts, offers just that to all of its undergraduate students. Northeastern University is ranked number one in co-ops by the Princeton Review, and offers a six-month long internship program every year. The Mission of the Division of Cooperative Education may be expressed in three parts: 1. To cultivate and maintain the position of Northeastern University as a national and international leader in Career Services and Cooperative Education 2. To provide comprehensive career planning services that support all members of the Northeastern University community in identifying, planning, and implementing sound career decisions 3. To provide Northeastern University students with cooperative educational experiences that have a significant impact on their professional lives. Most Northeastern students take advantage of the unique five-year program and use their six-months to experience more than just a new job. Every year, more students are finding co-ops outside of the metropolitan Boston area. Mike Hourihan is a 23-year-old finance major from Boston and can't say enough about the co-op program. "I worked for Merrill Lynch in San Francisco. The job itself taught me a lot about the finance industry. Merrill Lynch will look great on my resume' and the experience I gained is more than you can learn in the classroom," said Hourihan. "The people in the company were great and I got to sit with sales people and brokers on several occasions. The job taught me how trades settle and how to deal with different types of wealthy customers." The Silicon Valley and Bay Area of California is home to a plethora of businesses and companies that attract people from all over the globe. To leave school for six-months and work in your field of choice is only part of what Northeastern students gain when they take the opportunity to work across the country. Doreen Hodgkin, Senior Associate Dean for Administration at Northeastern manages a bulk of the co-op paperwork. "The students who leave the area to work have so much more to offer their employers in the workplace because of personal experiences," said Hodgkin.

Saving Private Ryan Essay -- Film Movies

Saving Private Ryan In his review of the film â€Å"Saving Private Ryan†, N.Cull claims that the film presents†¦ â€Å"a realistic depiction of the lives and deaths of G.I’s in the European theatre in World War II†. Do you agree with his assessment of the film? Argue your case. N.Cull’s assessment of the film Saving Private Ryan in that it portrays â€Å"a realistic depiction of the lives and deaths of G.I’s in the European theatre in World War II† is an accurate one. Director Stephen Spielberg brings to the audience the â€Å"sheer madness of war† and the â€Å"search for decency† within it. That search ends for a group of soldiers whose mission it is too save Private Ryan. Although the film shows horrific and realistic battle scenes along with historically correct settings and situations with weapons and injuries true to their time, the film’s portrayal of war goes a lot deeper than that. The expressions and feelings of soldiers along with their morals and ideology are depicted unifyingly with the horror of war. The lives and deaths of American soldiers in the immediate part of the invasion of Normandy are illustrated more realistically than ever before. Saving Private Ryan captures the â€Å"harsh reality of war as authentically as possible†. The films historical accuracy of the Omaha beach landing begins with the â€Å"angry sea† and the timing of the attack, taking place at dawn. The film starts with Ryan in old age remembering his fallen comrades and then the story goes back in time to the events from there. A group of armed soldiers aboard a transport vessel look almost discarnate as the boat is tossed around the ocean. The soldiers do not pay attention to the orders they are given. (Perhaps a cause of why there is so much confusion and disorganisa... ...Ryan may not be a complete representation of the invasion of Normandy because of its need to provide a storyline and make a profit at the cinemas. Yet its accurate historical detailing enables N. Culls assessment of the film to be â€Å"a realistic depiction of the lives and deaths of G.I’s in the European theatre in World War II† Bibliography Primary Sources D. Breger. Private Breger in Britain. London, 1944 J. Robert Slaughter. D-Day, 1944. Source analysis. Sir W. Churchill. Words at War. June 15, 1940 Secondary Sources American Historical Review. Vol 103 no 4. October 1998 R. Wolfson. Years of Change 1891-1995. Hudder and Slaughton. London, 1993. S. Spielberg. Saving Private Ryan: The Men. The Mission. The Movie. http://www80.homepage.villanova.edu/james.dion/over.html 18/09/2001 T. Edwards. D-Day. Wayland Publishers. London, 1975.

The Carbon Market and Energy Efficiency Targets in the EU

Power Prospect 9.9MW Rice-Husk Power Plant: ( 2neodymiumIssue ) CERs Issued:25,978tCO2vitamin E Verification Period: 1 Sep 2010 – 31 Dec 2011 The biomass works uses rice chaff ( which is godforsaken merchandise from rice Millss ) as a fuel to bring forth electricity. The works displaces fossil fuel to bring forth electricity, thereby helps to cut down to GHG emanation. The capacity of the works is 9.9MW, whereas big proportion of the electricity sold to Provincial Electricity Authority ( PEA ) under Very Small Power Producer Program, staying power used in-house ingestion and supply neighbouring Nakron Laung Rice Mill ( NLRM ) . In order to accomplish the consistence in energy supply to PEA the Power Prospect Company Ltd ( PPCL ) plans to secure 60 % of the rice chaff from the neighbouring NLRM factory and 40 % of the chaff from other Millss nearby. The works has a possible to provide 70,246 MWh of PEA and 35,348tCO2e one-year over one-year norm over the crediting period of estimated GHG emanation decrease. Further, undertaking has certain advantages such as GHG emanation decrease potency, since it displaces fossil fuel for power coevals, helps to run into turning demand for power in Thailand and better in support for local population by making occupations. Lopburi Solar Power works Undertaking: ( 1stissue ) CER Issue:122,828tCO2vitamin E Verification Period: 1 Jan 2012 – 31 December 2013 The Lopburi Solar Power works is a Greenfield Project of Natural Energy Development Co. , Ltd. ( NED ) , Lopburi state Thailand. The works considered as a one of the largest solar PV power workss in the universe and first large-scale undertaking solar PV in Thailand. The works uses the sunshine as energy beginning for bring forthing C impersonal electricity. NED plans to raise the thin-films PV panels at the undertaking works with the sum installed capacity 73.16MW-DC gross. Harmonizing to the undertaking program, the net measure of electricity coevals sold to the national power grid-Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand ( EGAT ) , via provincial Electricity Authority ( PEA ) transmittal lines under a 5-year automatically renewable power purchase understanding ( PPA ) in the Small Power Producer ( SPP ) Program. The undertaking expected to cut down GHG about 65,214 metric tons of tCO2e per twelvemonth. Furthermore, the undertaking has a potency of bring forthing 105,512 MWh of net electricity to the grid per annum, which is tantamount to 63,096tCO2 GHG emanations extenuation decrease potency per twelvemonth. The undertaking fulfills the sustainable development standards by diminishing the dependence on fossil fuel, run intoing turning demand in Thailand, provides short and long-run employment for the local community and increasing in local content by transportation of Know-how, developing related to plan, operation and care from Sharp corporation, Japan to NED staffs. Carbon Markets Analysis EUA monetary values in the European conformity market made better public presentation this month. The first three hebdomads December 2014 hereafters traded in a scope of ˆ5.19–5.75/t and topographic point contracts traded in a scope of ˆ5.15- 5.70/t. On the other manus low volume of trading in 3rd hebdomad influenced diminution in trade by 21 per centum in comparing to last month. Though, lessening in volume of trading due to EU backloading program halved the volume of licenses and public vacation in Germany, nevertheless the monetary values have shown better public presentation. The betterment in monetary values were due to the undermentioned grounds i ) during early phase of the hebdomad C monetary values made strong addition, anticipating high demand from public-service corporation companies, two ) the C permits made good additions based on the intelligence of Germany’s plans to reform the EU-ETS by 2017 and iii ) speculative over German public-service corporation companies like RWE, E.ON and Vatternfall influenced monetary values motions. Meanwhile, CER monetary values in the UN-backed CDM improved this month after a downswing in last month. The December 2014 contract traded in the scope of ˆ0.09 – 0.15 cents/t, and the topographic point market monetary values for CERs traded in a scope of ˆ0.10 – 0.17 cents/t. December 2014 contract performed good after making all-time last monetary value of 0.08 cents/t last month due to diminish in the demand. It is expected that the demands for CERs are low until 2020 as they are waiting new UNFCCC trade. CCAs monetary values in California market shown better public presentation this month as December 2014 CCAs traded in a scope of $ 11.75 –11.85/t. The demand for C allowances are low in secondary market due to widespread belief that there are more pollution licenses in the market than needed. Meanwhile the North East’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative ( RGGI ) December 2014 RGAs traded in a scope of $ 4.95 – 5/t. The strong glade monetary value and high command resulted due to US Environmental Protection Agency ( EPA ) release of intelligence on new C bounds on power workss. As a consequence, the auction on first hebdomad sold 18 million allowances deserving of $ 90.67 million by 43 bidders. This shows purchasers involvement in clean energy and other consumer benefit plans. EU proposal on adhering Energy Efficiency ( EE ) mark for 2030 The on-going Russia-Ukraine crises made EU to concentrate on cut down dependence on fossil fuel. In this context, Curates from energy and environment of seven European states requested EU committee to include EE in energy and clime bundle for 2030. As per joint missive signed by group curates from Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg and Portugal says that energy efficiency must at the nucleus of the EU clime and energy policy up to 2030. Since, EE is the most robust and cost-efficient manner to cut down GHG emanations and it has a important sum of economic potency for EE betterments. At present EU-Emissions Trade Scheme ( ETS ) provides incentives merely for public-service corporation companies. Whereas, sectors such as services, private families, conveyance, trade and edifices are non covered under in EU-ETS. Hence, EE policy and mark plays a cardinal function in mitigate GHG emanations. Harmonizing to this proposal foremost, EU mark of 20 percent energy- economy should run into by 2020, so, reexamine advancement of 2020 EE mark and should show a proposal for adhering mark for EE in 2030. The proposal consists of mold of the scenarios of committee ‘s impact on appraisal attach toing 2030 bundle and European parliament proposal for an EE mark. Hence, it leads to necessary foundation for EU EE policy for 2030. This mark helps transmutation in long-run to make 80 to 95 per centum decrease of GHG gas emanation by 2050. However, harmonizing to environmental and energy curates the proposal should stress on impact appraisal of EU ‘s 2030 energy and environmental end and energy efficiency mark. The impact assessment lineation increases Europe ‘s EE by 30-35 per centum, but parliament proposed to cut GHG emanations by 40 per centum as one of three adhering mark for 2030 and increase in the portion of renewable energy portion by 27 per centum from 20 per centum undertaking in 2020. The EE end will non harm ETS, as ETS reforms have possible to prolong dazes from addition in EE. In this context Britain raised its concern over EU ‘s EE 2030 end as individual end is sufficient to cut the emanations mark that would let states to cut down C emanations in a cost-efficient mode. In contrast, a group of seven ministries argued that a separate EE is mark required save energy of sectors that are non regulated under ETS. Further, it besides said that, though EE might hold high upfront cost, but this will be offset as returns worth 1-2 trillion euros during 2020-2030 in the signifier of energy nest eggs. All in all, EU proposal on EE mark for 2030 is important for accomplishing decreases in GHG emanation in cost-efficient mode. EU Carbon Market Reform by 2017 EU- ETS has suffered from planetary fiscal crisis, where C monetary values fell drastically below ˆ5/t due to flood of C licenses since 2008. Therefore, European committee proposed a program to puting up alleged market stableness fund/reserve to fudge against future economic hazards. The committee wanted to force C monetary values towards ˆ20/t for pulling more investors to put in low-carbon engineerings. Whereas, at present EU-ETS screens 12000 power workss, mills and air hoses. But, some of largest emitters such as Germany, England and France wanted this reforms to implement by 2017 ( 4 old ages of in front of committee ‘s proposal to implement ) . At present state of affairs EU modesty proposal agreed by the bulk of member provinces ; nevertheless it will confront strong disapproval from industry and coal dependent eastern provinces. However, Germany interested to cut 900 million C licenses for good, which is temporarily being held because of EU ‘s backloading program. If committee agrees for Germany ‘s program so recovery of monetary values will be quicker and travel towards stable monetary values because backloading program will non return. Harmonizing to point C, if reforms implemented by 2017 the monetary values will increase by 40 per centum over a period 2014-2020 than committee ‘s start day of the month of 2021. In drumhead, committee ‘s modesty program will be good to the market in short-run, since it will force C monetary values higher around 40 per centum on an mean during 2014-20. What a monetary value to ‘rescue CER’ ? In recent past the monetary values of beginnings generated under CDM undertakings are rather low. Consequently, such low monetary values have made investors to retreat from undertakings and contracts. Recently, one of the largest C hearers SGS announced to step back from C confirmation of CDM undertakings. This is attributed to Continuing contraction in CDM market and associated concerns with regard to costs and hazards among CDM undertakings. The weakening of CDM substructure has led market atomization, higher extenuation costs and chances of edifice comprehensive and efficient planetary C market. Therefore, there is important call to halt farther impairment of the planetary C market substructure. States like Norway, Sweden and the UK that have voluntary domestic marks and launched financess to buy CERs from developing states under dedicated vehicle. For illustration, Norway is willing to buy 30 million CERs under Norse C procurance installation. Therefore, what monetary value it should pay for buying C beginning and whether exposure and cost effectivity of the undertaking can accomplish at the same clip. Since, exposure and cost effectivity varies from one undertaking to another for illustration, efficient cook ranges and compact florescent lamps ( CFL ) ; C finance plays a important function to prolong the undertaking. Whereas, undertakings related to windmill C finance generates excess income, but impact no sustainability of the undertaking. All in all, there is no individual monetary value, if exposure defined as a minimal C monetary value to maintain undertaking alive. Undertakings with lone CERs as gross are decidedly vulnerable and the exposure depends on engineering and geographics, but non vulnerability itself.

Migration Project Essay

The Tony’s Chips web site is to be moved from and external hosting solution to an internal solution. In addition, the site will be redesigned to enable customers to place orders. These are two separate work tasks that should be treated separately and performed by different team members. There are many options for hosting the web site internally, including software choices to hardware architecture. This document will review the tasks that need to be performed, document the process of performing those tasks, and justify the software and hardware choices. There are a few different alternatives to how this web site can be hosted. The company could host the web site with an external service that maintains their own servers and services. This method is commonly used by start-up businesses and web sites that do not require a huge amount of customization, monitoring, bandwidth, and storage. When a company wishes to have more control over their site and how it is hosted, they can chose to use a server service. With this kind of service, a company that owns a large server farm leases out one or more servers to the company. This allows the company to have dedicated servers, which they have control over without the need to physically store the server or perform the regular maintenance. Web sites that involve database-driven web applications can eventually require many different servers. This can be a problem for some companies that do not have the logistical capabilities to store these servers on-site. Consider that these servers will take up space, require appropriate cooling, and warrant a sophisticated fire-suppression system. A server farm service will have all of this in place all ready at no additional cost to the client. The first step in migrating the web site from an externally hosted service to an internal system is to get the infrastructure in place. This includes the physical computers that will be used, the software servers that will be installed on these computers, the network configuration, the wide area network connectivity, and the necessary firewall. Once all of this is in place, the content of the external web site should be replicated to the internal system, as it currently is. Then, after testing the internal web site via the IP address that points to the internally-hosted version, the systems administrators can update the DNS record for the web-site’s domain name to point to the internally hosted version. This can take a couple days to fully produce across the major DNS backbone on the internet. During that time, some traffic will go to the internal site and some will go to the external site. There will be no downtime as far as the users of the site are considered. However, some data that is stored as a result of user-interaction may not be record at the new site. This will require that the old site to be left running for a business week. After every day, the old site should be checked for any new data transactions. Any found should be migrated to the new site. While this method will place more work on the staff of the company, it results in zero downtime for users of the site. While this method place more work on the staff of the company, it results in zero downtime for users of the site. The work to be performed in this part of the project can be broken down into: Planning and Analysis, Physical Setup, Software Installation, Code Replication, Data Migration. In the Gantt Chart in the attachment following this paper, a lot of the tasks that are taken during the process of migrating the existing site from an externally hosted service to an internally hosted system can occur concurrently. For instance, installation of the web server and the database server can occur at the same time. This is assuming that the web server and the database server are on two different machines. The system software that will be used is rath er standard for a web site. The paradigm hat is chosen revolves around a Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP (LAMP) model. The security features available within many distributions of Linux are far better than would be available on Windows. In addition, everything in a LAMP model is freely available. An alternative model would use Windows and IIS. However, Windows and IIS are only available commercially. In contrast, Linux and Apache are free systems that are widely supported and are, by far, the most widely used platform for hosting web sites. In addition, the use of PHP and MySQL is also free. The web site could also be set up with something like Adobe ColdFusion and Microsoft SQL Server. However, both of these items are commercially available for a substantial price. While Microsoft SQL Server is quite popular, it does not come close to the wide spread use of MySQL. Likewise, PHP is an order of magnitude more common than Adobe ColdFusion. There is no reason to spend large quantities of money on application and database servers when the most commonly used, and fully supported systems are freely available. Since Tony’s chips is not currently an extremely large web site that processes millions of transactions a day, the architecture will be rather standard and simple. However, the need for redundancy has been made clear and needs to be taken into consideration. In the interest of making the web site fault tolerant, two web servers, two database servers, and a replication server will be set up for the site. The system administrators must also ensure that wide area network connectivity with a static IP address is set up. This way, the static IP address can be assigned to the domain name in the site’s DNS entry. It is also important that security be taken into consideration. The use of a firewall and a demilitarized zone will be required. The demilitarized zone is in place to ensure that the public can access the web servers. However, the database servers and the replication server will exist behind a firewall that prevents the public from accessing these computers. The only external entities that will be able to access these servers are the web servers themselves. The replication server is exactly what it sounds like. It is in control of the replication of data across the two databases. We want to make certain that if a single database fails, that the other database is still up and running. This requires that we keep two copies of the database running at all times. However, this will not require that the program logic deals with two sets of data. All modern database management systems have the ability to set up a replication service that copies all the data entered into one database into another database. This ensures that if one of the databases fails, we can switch over to the database that is still running. After the failure is resolved, the data between the two servers will need reconciled. However, the users of the web site will not notice an interruption. The same basic concept is used for the web servers. Depending on traffic load or server condition, a web server could crash. To ensure that the system is tolerant of such a fault, two web servers are set up. If one of the computers or web servers crashes, the other one can pick up the traffic. In addition to providing the key benefit of fault tolerance, the additional web server can be set up to use load balancing. Since there will usually be two web servers running at any given time, it is possible to set it ups so that the traffic to the web site is split between the two servers. In a case where the web site is getting a very large amount of traffic in a short amount of time, this can help prevent the web server from getting over-taxed. An illustration of the system architecture is also provided in the attachment following this paper. The requirement to update the web site to facilitate customer orders has been identified. This is a software engineering requirement that is fundamentally separate than the requirement to move from an external host to an internal host. The only major impact that this would have on the migration is in the case that the web site never used a database before this change. This has not been identified. However, even if that were the case, the previously described architecture assumes that a database will be used. Therefore, the architecture that is required for the addition of an ordering system is fully in place. Now that such a system is in place, software engineers and programmers can begin the work of designing and implementing the new ordering system. It would not make sense to roll these processes in with the migration of the web site. Migration of a web site has enough potential pit falls and potential points of failure without adding in the variable of entirely new code. If this were to be done at the same time, a fault in the new ordering code could be mistaken for a fault that occurred with the migration, or vice versa. One of the downsides of hosting a web site internally is that all support will be divested to the company rather than a third-party service. This includes all regular maintenance of the system as well as regular web site support. For maintenance, regular backups of each database should made. This could include nightly backups and weekly backups that are stored off-site. This also involves maintaining network cabling and monitoring the temperature of the server storage area and cleaning dust out of the servers fan vents. This will also require monitoring network activity for malicious attacks such as a port scan or a distributed denial of service. More advanced server solutions that are available as external hosting would include all of this in their service fee. Technologies to detect and prevent things like distributed denial of service takes planning and a non-trivial software investment. Of course, the addition of the ordering system adds new requirements to the web site support. Customers will need a place to email and/or call to inquire about orders or complain about the service they received. There will need to be individual who are responsible for addressing these customer interactions. Evaluation of a web site like the one planned in this document is an ongoing process. At first, the success of the migration is evaluated by the existence and duration of any down time. Then, web site responsiveness and uptime is evaluated. With the measure put into place, the downtime should be zero and the uptime should be close to 100%. Even with redundancy and fault tolerance, it is impossible to guarantee 100% uptime. To evaluate the new order system, the success of orders needs to be taken into consideration. Can customers place the orders that they wish to make? When a product is out of stock, does it state so on the product pages and prevent the customer from placing the order? When the customer places the order, does the financial transaction process successfully? Is the database notified about denied charges? Beyond the mechanics of the order procedures, the number of orders being placed should be evaluated. The success of the web site can partially be evaluated by assessing the conversion rate on the web site. The conversion rate is the number of visitors who proceed to making an order. The goal is to convert as many customers as possible. If the system’s cart and the checkout system is not intuitive, the result could be a very low conversion rate. Conclusion The Tony’s Chips web site will be migrated to an internally hosted system consisting of fault tolerance and redundancy. After this logistical process has been completed and all necessary DNS entries have successfully updated, the system will be modified to include an ordering system so that customer can order chips and any other product that is offered. These two objects are separated to ensure that they do not interfere with one another and to limit the number of variables at any given time. With the proposed architecture and design, it is believed that the new system will be highly efficient and effective. In the attachments following this paper, as some were discussed earlier there will be a gnatt chart, system architecture illustration, and a use case.